A clear look at the major pathways, the “gray zone,” and why the numbers are often misunderstood

Immigration in the United States is often discussed in extremes—open borders versus mass deportations, compassion versus enforcement. Lost in that noise is a basic question many people sincerely want answered: How do immigrants actually gain entry to the U.S., and why are so many people here without permanent legal status?

The reality is more complicated than a single narrative. There isn’t one path into the country, and there isn’t one legal status people occupy once they arrive. Instead, the system consists of several distinct entry pathways, layered over temporary permissions, backlogs, and long-running cases that leave millions of people in a kind of legal limbo.

This post lays out those pathways in plain terms—what they are, how common they are, and where the confusion comes from—using estimates from organizations such as Pew Research Center and the Migration Policy Institute.

The big picture: how many people, roughly?

Because there is no single registry of people without permanent legal status, all figures are estimates, not precise headcounts. Still, multiple independent research groups converge on a similar range.

As of 2023, most mainstream estimates place the number of people in the United States without permanent lawful status at approximately 12 to 14 million. That is roughly 4% of the population. It is also estimated that 60% of the households led by unauthorized immigrants utilize at least one welfare program (~$42 Billion annually) That figure includes people who:

• Entered illegally and were never admitted

• Entered legally but overstayed a visa

• Were admitted temporarily (parole, asylum pending, TPS, DACA) but never received permanent status

  Understanding how people arrive helps explain why the number remains large and persistent.

1. Pathway One: Legal Entry, Then Visa Overstay

One of the least understood but most common ways people become undocumented is also one of the least dramatic: they enter legally and stay too long.

How it works

• A person arrives with a temporary visa (tourist, student, seasonal worker, business traveler).

• The visa allows entry and stay for a specific period.

• The person remains in the U.S. after that period expires.

At that point, the individual is out of status, even though their entry was lawful.

How common is it?

Research over many years suggests that visa overstays account for a substantial share of the undocumented population—often cited around 40% of cases, though the exact percentage varies by year and methodology.

Why this matters

Visa overstays complicate the border debate. These individuals didn’t cross deserts or evade checkpoints. They often arrived by plane, passed inspection, and then made a decision—sometimes intentional, sometimes circumstantial—to remain.

For enforcement agencies, overstays are harder to track than border crossings. For policymakers, they underscore that immigration enforcement isn’t just a border issue—it’s also an interior compliance issue.

2. Pathway Two: Entry Without Inspection (EWI)

This is the pathway most people picture when they think about “illegal immigration.”

How it works

• A person crosses into the U.S. between official ports of entry, without inspection or authorization.

• This is commonly referred to as Entry Without Inspection (EWI).

• Individuals may or may not later encounter immigration authorities.

Where it occurs

Historically, this pathway has been most associated with the southern border, though the demographics and nationalities involved have changed significantly over time.

Legal consequences

EWI carries some of the harshest legal penalties:

• It generally bars adjustment of status from inside the U.S.

• Leaving the country can trigger 3- or 10-year reentry bans.

• Even marriage to a U.S. citizen may require complex waivers.

Why it persists

Despite the risks, EWI continues because:

• Legal migration channels are limited or slow

• Economic and safety pressures remain strong

• Asylum law allows individuals to request protection once on U.S. soil

3. Pathway Three: Entry at a Port of Entry Without a Visa

Another important pathway sits somewhere between legal admission and illegal entry.

How it works

• A person arrives at an official port of entry (airport or border crossing).

• They lack a valid visa or are otherwise inadmissible.

• They request asylum or are processed under immigration law rather than immediately turned away.

Legal status

These individuals are not admitted as lawful permanent residents. Instead, they may:

• Be detained

• Be paroled into the U.S.

• Be placed into immigration court proceedings

While their presence may be authorized temporarily, they are still counted as lacking permanent legal status.

The “Gray Zone”: Temporary but Not Permanent Status

This category is where most confusion—and controversy—arises.

What is the gray zone?

The “gray zone” includes people who are:

• Physically present in the U.S.

• Known to the government

• Allowed to remain temporarily

• But not granted permanent lawful status

Common gray-zone categories

• Pending asylum cases

• Humanitarian parole

• Temporary Protected Status (TPS)

• Deferred Action (including DACA)

How many people are we talking about?

Pew estimates suggest that roughly 6 million people fall into this category—nearly half of the total undocumented estimate.

Why they’re still counted as “unauthorized”

Even though these individuals may:

• Have work authorization

• Have protection from deportation

• Have complied with reporting requirements

They do not have:

• A green card

• A guaranteed path to citizenship

• Permanent lawful status

Their presence is legal in a narrow, temporary sense—but unresolved in the long term

Why the system creates long-term limbo

The U.S. immigration system was not designed for the scale or complexity it now faces. Several structural issues drive prolonged uncertainty:

1. Backlogged courts

Immigration courts face multi-year backlogs, often stretching five to ten years.

2. Limited permanent visas

Congress caps many categories of permanent visas, regardless of demand.

3. Temporary programs without exit ramps

Programs like parole, TPS, and deferred action authorize presence but do not resolve status.

4. Enforcement vs. adjudication imbalance

The system emphasizes entry decisions more than final outcomes, leaving millions waiting.

Why numbers rise and fall over time

Changes in the undocumented population are influenced by:

• Economic cycles

• Global crises

• Visa policy changes

• Enforcement priorities

• Court capacity

• Processing delays

Importantly, no single administration controls all of these factors. Many trends reflect conditions set years earlier.

Common misconceptions

“Everyone crossed illegally”

False. A significant share entered legally.

“Temporary permission equals legal status”

False. Temporary authorization is not permanent status.

“Asylum seekers are automatically citizens”

False. Most asylum claims are denied, and the process can take years.

“There’s an easy path to citizenship”

False. For most people without status, there is no simple or guaranteed path.

Why clarity matters

Understanding these pathways doesn’t require agreeing on policy solutions. But it does require accuracy.

Public debate improves when:

• Categories are defined correctly

• Temporary status is not confused with permanent status

• Enforcement and humanitarian considerations are discussed honestly

Immigration policy is complex because human movement is complex—and because the legal framework has not kept pace with reality.

Conclusion: a system defined by entry paths—and unresolved endings

Most people without permanent legal status in the United States arrived through one of three pathways:

1. Legal entry followed by overstay

2. Entry without inspection

3. Arrival at a port of entry without a visa

Layered on top of those is a large gray-zone population—millions of people allowed to stay temporarily but left without permanent resolution.

That unresolved status is not an accident. It is the predictable result of a system that opens doors temporarily but struggles to close cases permanently.

Understanding how people get here is the first step toward understanding why the issue remains so difficult—and why clear thinking matters more than slogans.